MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING
Issued: 01:45 UTC on 11 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 14 SEPTEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 11-13 SEPTEMBER (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 11-14 SEPTEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 40, 40, 20 (11 - 14 SEPTEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO
HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24-72 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 72-96 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO
GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NEBRASKA TO NORTHERN MISSOURI TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO KENTUCKY TO VIRGINIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)
CENTRAL FRANCE TO NORTHERN SWITZERLAND TO SOUTHERN GERMANY TO THE CZECH REPUBLIC TO POLAND TO CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of coronal mass ejections have been directed partially
Earthward over the last few days. The Earth is beginning to observe
impacts from some of the stronger events. Periods of intensifying
auroral activity will be observed during the next several days. The
first of the larger impacts occurred near 01:19 UTC on 11 September
and is expected to produce periods of minor to major auroral storm
conditions, sporadically during the next 12 to 18 hours. Additional
strong impacts are expected over the next several days. Some of these
disturbances are cannibalizing other CME's, and as a result, the
potential geoeffectiveness will likely be complex and difficult to
accurately predict. Nevertheless, the potential exists for periods of
strong auroral storm conditions developing during the next several
days (at least). Near-continuous storm-level activity is possible
during the next week, if sunspot complex 10808 continues to impress
with energetic flare activity.
This warning will remain valid through 24:00 UTC (6 pm EDT) on 14
September, with a good chance that it will be extended beyond the
14th. It will be updated or allowed to expire at that time. For
updated information, visit:
www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
. For real-time plots of
current activity, visit:
www.spacew.com/plots.html
PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Warning **
  