Aurora Alert

AURORA ALERT: Two coronal mass ejections are heading directly toward Earth and they could spark strong auroras when they arrive on January 16th and 17th. These clouds were blasted into space by M8- and X2-class explosions above giant sunspot 720 on Jan. 15th.

Ronan Newman

galwayastronomyclub.ie

Yeah but the weather will ruin it again and again and again......its like a game of peek-a-boo....everytime something good happens

Weather forecast indicates that the west might get some sort of clearances later tonight, we'll have to wait and see, why couldn't it have happened last night when it was real nice and clear.

MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

Issued: 01:00 UTC on 16
January 2005 Solar Terrestrial Dispatch www.spacew.com


VALID BEGINNING AT: 03:00 UTC ON 16 JANUARY VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC
(6 pm EST) ON 18 JANUARY

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 16-17 JANUARY (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD:
16-18 JANUARY

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 50, 70, 30, 12 (16 - 19 JANUARY)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12-18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18-48 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR OR AFTER LOCAL
MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW TO MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN NEVADA TO UTAH TO COLORADO
TO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE
TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
(THIS LINE IS VALID *ONLY* IF FAVORABLE STORM CONDITIONS OCCUR)

NORTHERN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL TO SOUTHERN FRANCE TO ITALY TO ROMANIA
TO UKRAINE TO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS...

A potentially significant coronal mass ejection has been observed
containing an Earthward-directed component. It is presently
expected to arrive sometime during the mid to late UTC hours of 16
January and has the potential to produce periods of severe auroral
storm activity. That activity, if it materializes, may become
visible well into the lower latitudes. A low latitude auroral
activity watch is being issued in concert with this middle
latitude auroral activity warning. The most intense periods of
activity will likely be late on 16 January and into 17 January
(UTC days). For North American observers, the best opportunity
will be on the evening of 16 January and possibly into 17 January.
A second strong CME was also recently observed in association with
another major class X2 solar flare that will likely prolong
disturbed levels of auroral activity into 17 and possibly 18
January (an analysis of this latest event is underway).

This is a potentially significant event. Observers interested in
seeing auroral activity are encouraged to watch the skies on 16
through 18 January. Additional major levels of solar activity are
possible over the next several days.

This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
18 January. It will then be updated, downgraded to a watch or
allowed to expire altogether. For updated information, visit:
www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html . For real-time plots of
current activity, visit: www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT VALID OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html


** End of Warning **