Forwarded from Brian on auroralobserving.
groups.yahoo.com/group/auroralobserving/
Cloud cover looks thick over the country until tommow morning.
cheers,
~Al
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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
04 December 2004
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 04-06 December
A minor (but vigorous) solar flare was observed on 03 December that
will impact the Earth and enhance levels of geomagnetic and auroral
activity. The disturbance is strongly Earthward directed and has the
potential to produce periods of moderate to brief strong auroral
activity when it arrives.
It should arrive in the early UTC hours of 05 December (this is
equivalent to the very late evening hours of 04 December over North
America - late Saturday or early Sunday morning). It should last
approximately 12 to 18 hours after it arrives. The official watch
statement is included below.
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
Issued: 05:50 UTC, 04 December 2004
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
VALID BEGINNING AT: 18:00 UTC (7 pm EST) 04 DECEMBER
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) ON 06 DECEMBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 05 DECEMBER
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04-06 DECEMBER
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 10, 40, 20, 18 (04 - 07 DECEMBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 TO 18 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR AND PRIOR TO LOCAL
MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW - MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO
GOOD
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM...
NORTHERN OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
ILLINOIS TO OHIO TO NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN
POLAND TO NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM...
NEW ZEALAND TO EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA.
SYNOPSIS...
An earthward directed coronal mass ejection is expected to
increase levels of auroral activity early in the UTC day of 05
December (very late evening hours of Saturday night or very early
morning hours of Sunday morning over North America). Activity has the
potential to become sporadically strong over isolated regions.
Observations from locations equatorward of the lines noted above are
also possible in isolated regions. Observers are encouraged to watch
the skies over the next few nights for possible northern lights activity.
This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (6 pm EST) on
06 December. It will then be allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit:
www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
. For
real-time plots of current activity, visit:
www.spacew.com/plots.html
or
www.sec.noaa.gov
.
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
** End of Astroalert **
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