URSIDS UPDATE - POSSIBLE STRONGER MAXIMUM IN 2006

URSIDS UPDATE - POSSIBLE STRONGER MAXIMUM IN 2006
By Alastair McBeath, SPA Meteor Section Director

Further to the information in ENB 209 concerning the Ursids, Finnish
meteor investigators Esko Lyytinen and Markku Nissinen recently
issued a prediction for a possible stronger than normal maximum this
year, due to the dust trail laid down by the shower's parent object,
Comet 8P/Tuttle, in 996 AD (75 cometary revolutions ago). Zenithal
Hourly Rates may reach 35 or so, compared to the more normal
10-15.

Their peak timing calculation falls within the window previously
predicted for the shower's maximum, on December 22, at 19h27m
UT, but parts of the dust trail could be encountered from about
18h-21h UT, which extends the possible maximum interval suggested
earlier by about an hour (originally given as 19h-21h UT).

As there is no Moon this year, the peak is predicted for the early
evening hours, and the circumpolar radiant will be nicely observable
from Britain with dark skies throughout this interval, all observers here
are urged to watch for as long as possible then to see what transpires.
As with all meteor predictions, there are no guarantees of the strength
or timing of the event, and there is one proviso, as Lyytinen and
Nissinen suggest many of the meteors may be faint, perhaps with a
magnitude distribution similar to the sporadics. Thus, clear, dark skies
will be essential.

So thats on Friday night, will the fog have cleared by then ?

Hope so.......

Keith..