Bad Astronomy

Someone posted this link over on boards. Can the Aurora experts say whether its reliable. Is it Bad Astronomy

helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/Europe.html

Ovation is the latest predictive tool from NOAA and may in time replace Kp index as a predictor of auroral activity.

Will it show if an aurora is happening over Donegal and not over Dublin? probably not. For localised events especially at lower latitudes, where say the auroral oval's edge is located, local magnetometer data still is the best indicator.
What boards are you talking about

dave Gradwell

I was and wondering if this was a reliable Aurora prediction website and/or whether the red line was a good indicator/accurate of whether it was worth hopping into the car. ie. If the line was across Meath I might take a drive whereas if the line was across Donegal I wouldn't.

So basically what you are saying is that while broadly speaking the latitude the red line is on is the average latitude the aurora is visible from, that there could be local peturbations not resolved on that map that might place the viewing line a few degrees south or north of the line?? Would that be a correct interpretation?

The boards I refered to is www.boards.ie

Yes it's an indicator only, thats all Im saying. Looking at the current image, is there rra ovr Donegal now? it's hard to tell isnt it. My magnetometer shows quiet which is what I would expect considering current conditions.
Auroral predictions is still somewhat of a black art, especially at lower latitudes. Take a look at the predicitions for the first CME, Saturday at 22:30 +/- 7 hrs and it hit at 6:17am on Sunday.
Once it hits the magnetometer registers it and so I know for sure there's activity, until then its a (sometimes not so accurate) guessing game. And there are occaisions where a CME will hit and there'll be no magnetometer fluctuations, then I know the dislpay will either be photographic only or not visible at all from our latitudes (as what happend Sunday).

HTH DaveG