Three Doors with one prize

P.S. You might have found it in an Astronomy book but it IS "off topic" for Astronomy.

I suppose but I would think this would be an eyeopener for people interested in physics and astronomy. Astronomy is full of various facts, figures and statistics. And if it is clear that the average person will assume something is 1/3 when in fact it is 2/3, it helps people be aware that even those statistics that seem simple may be interpreted in a complete different way

This is also known as the Monty Hall problem.

Here is the wikipedia page for it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

It would be easier to go on winning streak and win a bucket load of cash for doing nothing.

This is also known as the Monty Hall problem.

Here is the wikipedia page for it.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem

I almost got it exactly right
Goats??
They make it look very complicated with equations and things
But good to see they have almost the exact same logic table. To work out anything all you ever need to do is list all the possibilities. Had this book as a kid called "logic games" and for the hard ones that's what we did, make little tables and work it out step by step. I guess a decision tree works too, that's whats on wikipedia as well, but really no point in it.

Ha! Indeed.

So what we were missing (those of us who got flummoxed) is that the host opening a particular door does indeed provide additional information -- because he's always going to open a losing door.

Great brain twister. Come to think of it, Stephen J Gould wrote about it in one of his books too, didn't he?

-- Jeff.

Stick to the initial choice.

Kinda like if there was 3 q's at the supermarket,
One breaks down and the other 2 are left.
Both look like they are moving ok but one is
ever so slightly more tempting....
STAY PUT!!!
I bet you the faster moving q will have some Muppet
that breaks a bottle of vinegar or else their visa card is out of date
and they start arguing with the poor sales clerk.

ALWAYS stick with your initial choice!!