'Are UFOs Real?'

Are UFOs real equates to are ET robotic probes real?


We are not certain that ETI civilizations even exist or what the leading manifestations of ETI technomogy are. We do know ETI technology is based on the same fundamental physics as our own, but the ETI technology we first encounter will be profoundly different, advanced and alien.

It is postulated that intentional omni-directional beacons either at optical or radio wavelengths are one obvious manifestation of ETI technology. Another is unintentional or random telecommunications leakage from advanced civilizations, or long range scanning at RF or laser wavelengths. These are sensible first order assumptions regarding ETI manifestations that are being actively investigated by several professional and amateur microwave and OSETI (optical) scientists.

Manifestations of our own civilization, within the solar system and stretching about 75 light years, are TV and radio broadcasts, pulses from planetary radar systems, space craft telecommunications transmissions from Earth, the presence of several active deep space probes. the observable features of our own robotic probes are well known and have a familiar shape which includes a large dish antenna, gold metallized thermal blankets, and appendages like a boom magnetometer, solar panels or RTG's.

However, this space probe stereotype is temporary. the current trend in probe design is lower mass, smaller volume, lower power (more energy efficient), wider communications bandwidth and increased autonomy. If spacecraft evolution continues the solar system will some day contain multitudes of small autonomous robotic probes responsible for monitoring specific regions or bodies in the solar system, linked via an optical comms network. Future perspective surrounding robotic probe technology will be much different primarily because robotic probes will be an integral part of our society and at the pioneering edge of our expanding civilization.

It is argued by SETI advocates that the first ETI civilization we encounter will be much older than our own. Older technological civilizations are expected to be advanced on all fronts, including the robotic exploration of interstellar space. When considering ETI robotic probes we must be mindful that the physical features will be remarkably different compared to our own probe designs, probably surpassing what we can imagine our own spacecraft evolve into.

Since 1957 our civilization has launched approx 125 space probes (lunar missions included) to explore the solar system. If we continue to launch 125 probes every 40 years, that equates to 312 probes every 10(2) years. In 10(4) years of deep space probe exploration the number of probe launches could exceed 31,000!

If the very best robotic probe velocity achievable by any advanced ET civilization is 10% the speed of light, then in 5000 years a civilization could reach out to a distance of 500 light years. If this civilization followed a launch rate of 110 launches per 100 years it could have 5,390 probes at selected star syatems between 10 and 500 LY. Or, if the launch rate was 312 per 100 years then the quantity increases to 15,288.

From our location in the galaxy there are an estimated 1.6 x10(6) star systems within 500 LY. there is a 0.9% chance that any particular star system within that volume would get a probe visitation by a civilization launching 0.1c velocity probes for 5000 years. If potentially life bearing star systems are sought more often, the probabilities of robotic probes in the solar system are given by Freitas and Burke-Warde. From these simple numbers, based on actual exploratory space probe trends on Earth, it is rational to presume that any advanced ETI civilizations, within 500 LY of our solar system, might have sent a probe to explore our solar system. Deep space launches for our civilization are now common and interstellar missions are within our grasp.

Combining that ingredient with the fact that an ETI robotic probe mission to our solar system has a non-zero probability, the potential is there to extent the SETI paramenters. Also once we get over the hurdle that may be UFOs are real, the next question arises, what should we search for in manifestations and how. This new thinking and approach within the SETI is called SETV (Search for Extraterrestrial Visitation).


Ref: Robert Freitas, "The case for Interstellar Probes",, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol 36, pp. 490-495, 1983

Richard Burke Ward, "Possible Existence of Extraterrestrial technology in the Solar System", Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol 53, pp.2-12, 2000

Eamonn A

Eamonn,
Thats is an interesting point of view and I can see your logic in that argument, be that its hypotethical.
I'd have to agree with Albert, in that I do believe there is life out there somewhere, I even wish they were visiting us, but what I wish or would like to think doesnt make it so, I'd have to err on the side of the more likely version of the situation.

Albert/James
As for burden of proof, I think the burden of proof should be placed on the the more unlikely scenario, its up to them to prove that the more likely scenario is wrong.
just my 2 cents.

I take your point Dave. I think you have to combine the theoretical possibility of this inflation theory for extraterrestrial visitations and examine scientifically the reality of the UFO phenomenon through open scientific research with special attention paid to high quality UFO reports exhibiting apparent indications that ET intelligence and strategy are involved.

Theoretical possibilities unknown to Fermi back in 1950 makes Fermi's paradox even stronger today. One can now rationally conjecture about prospects afforded by adjacent M-brane universes. If the multidimensional underlying superstring and M-brane theory are correct, there could be inhabited universes separated from our own by minute distances. Also, anthropic reasoning has recently been applied to inflation theory, arriving once again at the conclusion that we should find ourselves within an enormously larger galactic civilization.

While the 'We are alone' solution to Fermi's paradox was once a seemingly valid one, this answer is now incompatible with the infinite universe and random self-sampling assumption consistent with inflation theory. We find ourselves in the curious position that current cosmological theory predicts that we should be experiencing extraterrestrial visitation. At the same time, current physics and astrophysics suggest that such visitation may not be impossible as had been thought.

Recent scientific advances with over 130 exoplanets catalogued. In exobiology, some of the recent building blocks for life may originate in space ie transported by meteorites. Widespread panspermia has received new impetus, which makes it plausible the hypothesis that there is intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. This of course is a fundamental assumption made by the proponents of SETI.

The extraterrestrial hypothesis (ETH), that intelligent life from'elsewhere' in the universe could be visiting Earth, has become less plausible through suggestions that the velocity-of-light constraint 'they can't get here from there' - is not as restricting as had been assumed previously. This restriction has its origin in the special theory of relativity, which we do not question. However, within the context of general relativity (GR) there are 3 approaches which may permit legitimately bypassing this limit, given sufficiently advanced (perhaps by millions of years!) knowledge of physics and technology.

1. Wormholes popularized by Thorne & sagan
2. Alcubierre Warp drive
3. Krasnikov tube

Clearly when it comes to engineering warp drive or wormhole solutions, seemingly insurmountable obstacles emerge, such as unattainable energy requirements or need for exotic matter. If success is to be achieved, it must rest on some yet unforeseen breakthrough about which we can only speculate, such as a technology to cohere otherwise random vacuum fluctuations.

The possibillity of reduced time interstellar travel by advanced ET civilizations is not, as naive consideration might hold, fundamentally rules out by presently known physical principles. ET knowledge of the physical universe may comprise new principles which allow some form of FTL travel
This possibility is to be taken seriously, since the average age of stars within the galactic habitable zone, in which the Earth also resides, is found to be 10(9) years older than the Sun suggesting the possibiltity of civilizations extremely advanced beyond our own.

There are further reasons why the 'We are alone' solution to Fermi's paradox should perhaps be set aside in favour of the ETH. A previously preferred solution, that biogenesis is an exceedingly rare event in conjunction with both panspermia and interstellar travel being inoperative, is now scarcely tenable in light of the cosmological considerations already mentioned. The ETH appears to be the most viable remaining solution, where 'ET' is taken in a general non Earthly sence that could include extra dimensional realms, as in M-brane and superstring theory. Given the highly advanced ET science and technology to be expected in considerably older civilizations, coupled with the many observational reports since WW2 of highly advanced technology seemingly operating at will within Earth's skies, it is only logical to search for evidence of ET visitations in at least a fraction of the ongoing, unexplainable reports popularly referred to as 'UFO sightings'. reluctance to do so could result in our failure to realize that observations of 'genuine' ET visitations have been occurring.

The fact that a craft can not be identified with a group of known aircraft type or of national origin does not make them any less as real as is often argued in the case of UFO's in general. For example a burglar attemplting to rob a bank may in fact by unidentified, but that does not take away from the fact that a burglar has committed a crime and may leave behind clues to his'her identity in the process. Yet classifying an object as unidentified has stale mated any real scientific process with the so called UFO phenomena.

There is really a case of open scientific research on the subject needed with special attention paid to high quality UFO reports exhibiting apparent indications that ET intelligence and strategy are involved

Eamonn A

I had plenty in reply but I deleted it all. Sorry but your stuff read like a lot of cut and paste from various loopy websites. Dated too, especially after reading the very latest scientific research.

All I can say is, if you believe in this stuff then do the research yourself. Personally, I think things like medical research, renewable energy and world hunger are more important.

If your little green friends did arrive then they would probably be half starved, out of oil and have various nasty diseases that our ladies would not be keen on developing.

And good luck with the EPSRC grant application!!!

Incidentally, what is your background?

Folks, can we please remain civil here.

I'm watching this thread and if the tone degrades much further I'll just lock the it.

Bart.

I had plenty in reply but I deleted it all. Sorry but your stuff read like a lot of cut and paste from various loopy websites. Dated too, especially after reading the very latest scientific research.

What latest?

For example:
1. Wormholes popularized by Thorne & sagan

Kip Thorne has long speculated about the use of wormholes, and has written a bit about them. There isnt a lot of research that can be done in that field beyond what has already been theoretically established. Kip Thorne and others are currently working on projects like LIGO [1] to detect the gravity waves that these same theories suggest should be observable.

2. Alcubierre Warp drive. 9 matches in the abstract service. The latest dated from 2003 from that well known band of disreputable tin foil hat wearing freaks in Lockheed Martin Space Operations. [2] </sarcasm>

3. Krasnikov tube

The earliest paper I can see on this is from 1997[3]. There are also a couple of papers in the abstract service from 2003 discussing the merits of the Krasnikov tube.

I think things like medical research, renewable energy and world hunger are more important.

By the same token though you would not conduct any astronomical research.

There is really a case of open scientific research on the subject needed with special attention paid to high quality UFO reports exhibiting apparent indications that ET intelligence and strategy are involved

I can't argue with that. If there are pheomena in the skies then there is at least no harm in examining the best cases. We wither learn something new, or expose the cause as a fraud.

Cheers,
~Al

[1] www.ligo.caltech.edu/
[2] adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query...high=42554ecbff06038
[3] adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query...high=42554ecbff04442